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DAX Week 27 Aug – 01 Sep


After week long consolidation we have wait a bit longer for final price move.

DAX tested 12430/50 resistances but didn’t make thru, also sharply declined from  down trend line. 



We looking for:


Fall from trend line towards 12220 / last week lows with possible leg lower


Successful breakout and rally towards 12560/630


 


We still have 2 gaps in range 


Upper 12630 recent sell off (08/09th Aug)

Lower at 12220 (17th Aug)

Also there is previous gap with generally messy action at 11730/12000 from early April, good target to be reset before Q4.


Update 27th



Price push thru key resistance 12430/450 to tag 12500 before retreat.

With UK traders off for bank holiday, morning session lack a bit of steam. Lets see if clearing out positions above 450 helps buyers some how or we had shorts squezze

DAX left behind gap, Asia trading started with small up gap 12410>415 adding another unfinished businesses below current price. 

US Indexes helps a lot 

US open

Buyers just score 1st target nice, rally with us indexes

London is no trading today so keep in mind as can be more dynamic tomorrow.  


 

Update 28th

After strong and solid breakout rally, traders seems looking for profits and support.  Right now watching 12480/50/30 to act as support, that will help get base for next leg up to 12630/70

DAX get a bit carried away on US Indexes rally so this will be important test for buyers as without supporting that breakout rally can get erased

If we use Fibonacci retrace tool, price rally to 61.8 level of August sell off

Same tool draw from low to today highs show possible turn points at 485 (23.6) and 415 (38.2) that will be shallow pullbacks. Deeper corrections 370 (50) and 300 (61.8)

Beside that mention turning points 530/520 is old support and resistance, consolidation can rebuild it after that range get sell off earlier. 

Good to watch further advance of US Indexes, continuation of rally can keep pushing DAX price higher.

Market to remain healthy need periods of consolidation and pull backs / rebounds. 

 


Update 29th 


Mixed session. DAX hit low at 12500 just to find buyers support and pushed back to day highs. 

Maybe that was just enough as pullback and price will build base for next leg up. Keep eye on 12530/20/00 if DAX manage to hold on that support 

Clueless day a bit, yes we have buyer help pull back price from lows to highs of but no one to push thru  12570 or challenge next resistance jet.  

Whatever is going on lets be very careful, with end/ beginning of month and lack of strength to push pass 630/70 situation can triger profit take. 


With week slowly going to end:

Buyers will be looking for more support and attempts to challenge this week highs and possible next breakout above 12630/70 to 12730/855.

Deeper pull back (12480/50/30) is still possible but not sure then if will be enough time to tag that zone and get back to highs before end of month.

Sellers will be looking for price consolidate between 500/600 but too weak to push higher and collapse or strong decline from 630/70 resistance


I’m just thinking DAX is getting  pump up a bit not just as US Indexes rally but also to minimize decline on  monthly statistics. There is also attention about on going deal with NAFTA and even if impact of news would be just short time that is exactly what DAX need right now to  push higher or sell off.

August: highs 12830 –  Lows 12104


Update 30th


Price declined all ready during Asia trading hours and get push lower at EU open. However recovery was real strong and fast. Market digest that down and up move by most of remaining day, creating promising structure for rally just under channel but did not complete it for higher target. 

Buyers have much more difficult situation after today but not hopeless.

Right now we are ending day on edge of previous  resistance now acting as support 12450. If price holds here buyers to complete target above will have to show more strength, remount trade line and keep on buying until 12600 is clear out to get more space.

Sellers have bit easier job atm, DAX declining for long time so just more pressure to push under 400 and we good to go for 12330/220 and lower, Asia session can be just enough to open path if traders continue selling 2nd day in row.

Friday can be volatile day not just as rally loosing grip atm but also with end of month there can be significant adjustment for September trading, stay focus and trade safe! Lets see if we have day with good move or boring, flat consolidation and  waiting for next month day.

Plus Argentina getting thru big trouble with keep currency from free fall. Not directed connection for DAX market but can have global impact any way, even if there will be just like more caution with risk take then without support of buyers DAX will go back to lows. 


Update 31st


Sellers nail it not much fight from buyers. EU open with aggressive sell. Price stabilized for few hours between previous support 12370 and 12410 and downside finished with US traders on board. 

Price still going lower so more likely before will finish this update will tag round 300, extension marked at chart by red arrows can happens today but we have all ready significant move for one day so would think more as Monday will continue selling. 

Interesting week, rally hit 12600 missing target for just 30 points and is on way to see lows. During weekend will prepare new week setup. 

Have good weekend!

 


Outlook

update: forget last week sentiment, US indexes score new highs and market rally 

This week combination of short covering and market waiting for US/China trade talks and FED decision regarding further credit rates created solid range trading. 

Attempts to break 12400 end with  decline but also market absorb selling pressure under 12370.

DAX got help from US indexes where SP500 and Nasdaq reach new highs and Oil rally base on bullish news as Saudis drop plans reg Amareco

Beside that short term events there is not much to push price higher so if rally occurs will be outcome of amounts bought contracts from lows and all that sell pressure absorbed under 12370 support. 

Sell off  will clear house all way to 12220 (gap) but with good chance to break 12k mark and revisit key support at 11730

My trading not include fundamental analyze or news driven action but is worth to watch news impact, if instrument holds well facing constant bearish news, bullish news can become trigger for hype rally. Same time sellers maybe just preparing for next move and fulfill demand under 12.1 price tag can require significant contracts accumulation / strategy to break thru.

With so unclear direction there is nothing left beside track price action at points mention at opening of that post.

My trade:

https://www.tecet.net/?p=941


https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/DYY00/cheat-sheet


 

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