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DAX Index 29 Oct – 3 Nov

Last week summary:


Last week completely  under control of sellers.

Like mentioned in previous weekly setup, sellers return at 11660 and complete almost all targets. Zone 11380/325 hit easily and price tag 11150 ending at lowest point 11050.

Last  target 10800 not reach but 600p decline is wide enough. Still unfinished businesses here.

last week charts and outlook: https://www.tecet.net/?p=1400

Next week:


Price found support levels at 11050 lows and also 11150, right now we are at Fib 50 of long term trend from 2016 so here can be more interest from long term investors.

We have good chance for correction of last week sell off, both on profit take from short positions and risk control as downtrend is overstretched all ready.

Also 1 month decline of over -9% is quite large and that create good chance for correction in that statistic (+3-5%)  before month end next week.


Buyers setup:



Buyers: have opportunity to buy at very good price so more likely there will be interest in that, so far we can see more defensive approach and when succeeded can lift market to 11470/550 area with rally picking up momentum after 11300/330 can force speed up to cover shorts. 

In longer terms DAX supported by good outcome from news: Italy, UK/EU deal, US midterm elections, price can extend further beyond 11630/850 and up to 12150 in coming weeks. With coming mid term elections in US  market can get more dynamic on polls and outcome.

Targets:  11330 on success: 11470/550 then extension 11630/850 


Sellers setup:



Sellers: need to get more cautions approach right now, sell off overstretched and in zone of interest long term investors. Perhaps will be good idea to take some profits and cover until  11470/550 where can be next opportunity to reload on shorts and try push for 10830/600/480.

Rally extended still not invalidate bearish trend until 12150  but short cover can get very aggressive lifting market high and fast.

Of curse some early week news can halt any rally and push price under faster, until that however we will be looking for correction or consolidation here.

Targets:  10830 then extension: 10600/480


Volume profile chart:


GAPS:


12400; 12100; 11550; 11310

Good chance for close last 2 gaps next week. 


Price performance: 

source: https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/DYY00/performance

Support and resistance levels:

source: https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/DYY00/cheat-sheet

7 Comments

  1. Tecet

    “Positive” news around current market moving problems are:

    Italian sovereign debt kept unchanged in rating by S&P and assurance from Fiance Ministry as they will keep support for banks however damage is done all ready and can take time to reverse situation especial as long Italian lawmakers keep on trying to include current draft as budget for coming years and challenging ECB.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/italy-ratings-sp/update-1-sp-leaves-italy-rating-unchanged-but-lowers-outlook-to-negative-idUKL8N1X67LT
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-27/tria-says-government-would-intervene-in-a-banking-crisis-ansa?srnd=premium-europe

    “Negative”:

    Germany leading party lost a lot confidence from voters and that can put current coalition in high risk.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-27/merkel-faces-next-test-of-her-authority-in-german-regional-vote?srnd=premium-europe

  2. Pingback:DAX Index update 31.10 – Tecet

  3. Tecet

    Price reach 1st long target extension, now we looking if can hold on gains after profit take and find support between 11360/250 for next target 11850. Fail to provide support there can erase that rally completely and set new lows, last supports 11170/30 11085.

  4. Pingback:DAX Index week 05 – 09 November – Tecet

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